Prediction Markets in Australia: Did the World Cup Drive Their Popularity?

Prediction markets are platforms where users buy and sell contracts linked to the outcome of future events.

Instead of placing traditional fixed-odds bets with a bookmaker, prediction markets let you trade contracts with other users (or platforms) whose prices reflect the market’s perceived probability of an event occurring.

As new information becomes available, whether it’s a team announcement, injury news, or even public sentiment, the contract prices move accordingly.

To illustrate how this works, our team at AustralianStakes monitored prediction market activity leading up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. In the days before kick-off, Spain’s implied probability of winning fluctuated as traders reacted to team news and betting activity.

While sports bettors are familiar with shifting odds as the bookmaker adjusts its odds behind the scenes, with prediction markets, you see the shift yourself as thousands of participants buy and sell contracts based on how they believe the final would unfold.

Someone who purchased a Spain contract when the market gave them a 52% chance of winning, for example, could later sell that position if Spain’s implied probability rose to 60%, locking in a profit before the match had even started.

The biggest difference between traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets is the ability to buy and sell contracts based on the continuous price change, and although sports have become the most popular use case, prediction markets cover more than sports matches. Users can trade on political elections, economics, movie awards, and more.

This market-based approach has made prediction markets particularly appealing to users familiar with investing or cryptocurrency trading, where prices are driven by supply and demand rather than odds set by a bookmaker. As a result, many younger consumers view them as an alternative way to engage with major events, rather than simply another betting product.

Since they function more like financial markets than traditional bookmakers, prediction markets have become particularly popular among younger users already familiar with investing and cryptocurrency trading.

Prediction markets have gained the most traction among Gen Z and younger millennials. Many of them are already familiar with investing apps and cryptocurrency exchanges, so for them, buying and selling contracts feels more intuitive than placing a traditional fixed-odds bet.

Social media has also played a major role in the growing popularity of prediction markets. They became popular on social media, and market prices are frequently shared and debated on platforms like X and Reddit, where users discuss everything from sporting events to elections and economic forecasts.

So, instead of checking bookmaker odds, many younger users decide to follow prediction markets to understand how the market expects an event to unfold.

While Australian bookmakers haven’t released their official WC 2026 numbers yet, global sports betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup was estimated at $100-$210 billion, up from approximately $35-50 billion during the 2022 tournament.

The expanded 48-team format, more matches, and new betting markets all contributed to the increase, but prediction markets also recorded record activity at the same time, suggesting that while they’re not replacing them completely, they are taking a significant share of the pie.