Victoria vs NSW: Australia's Natural Experiment in Pokies Reform

The first six months of Victoria’s new poker-machine rules have not produced the sharp fall in expenditure that might have been expected. Instead, player losses remained above the corresponding months of the previous financial year throughout the first seven months of the new regime.

The Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission data shows expenditure was 7.5% higher year on year in December 2025, when the new rules came into effect. The increase then continued through the first half of 2026.

Across December to June, EGM expenditure was about A$3.78 billion, compared with A$3.62 billion in the same period a year earlier, which is an increase of roughly 4.6%.

There is, however, a noticeable change in how the trajectory was moving. In the five months before the reforms, expenditure was running about 6.8% above the previous year. After December, that increase fell to 4.6%.

That isn’t proof enough that the reforms caused the slowdown, because the figures alone cannot separate their effect from other changes in consumer behaviour or the wider economy.

What they do show is that Victoria’s early experience is more complicated, and there’s no proof of reduced pokies expenditure. The money being spent on machines has not declined, although we can assume the rate of year-on-year growth has moderated.

New South Wales will have more time to prepare for cashless gaming than Victoria did, as the state has set 31 December 2028 as the deadline for the full transition, with new machines purchased once the rollout begins required to be cashless. New cash-enabled machines have also been subject to an A$500 load-up limit since July 2023.

That longer transition could make the NSW experience different, because pubs and clubs have several years to replace machines, install the required technology and adjust their operations.

Many NSW clubs use gambling revenue to support everything from local sporting clubs to subsidised meals and community projects. If cashless gaming eventually reduces pokie machine revenue, clubs will have to decide which of those activities can continue and where the money will come from.

For now, though, Victoria is not showing NSW that revenue will suddenly disappear, but it is providing the first real indication of how machine expenditure behaves after mandatory carded play, and NSW has more than two years to watch the numbers and adjust before the change arrives.